The Biggest Threat to the OKC Thunder in the NBA Playoffs Might Surprise You

“Shai Gilgeous-Alexander” Licensed Under CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

The NBA has crowned seven different champions over the past seven years, enjoying a level of parity it hasn’t seen in decades. If they have their way, the reigning Champion Oklahoma City Thunder are about to destroy it.

After raising last year’s banner, the Thunder entered this season as heavy favorites. A couple of rounds into the playoffs, and they’re living up to that hype. Search as far and wide as you’d like. As the operators covered in MyTopSportsbooks’ NBA betting playoffs section will show, not a single oddsmaker is treating OKC as anything less than inevitable. The lack of shifting markets is understandable. The Thunder have for the most part obliterated the competition in the NBA playoffs so far, all while being almost entirely without Jalen Williams, who when healthy, is widely considered their second-best player.

Plenty of experts already have the Thunder ticketed for dynasty status. It is tough to blame them. Or argue against them. But it got us thinking: If there’s a single team among surviving playoff squads who can prevent the Thunder from repeating as champs, who is it?

Because we are hip and cool, and also because we like making lists, here’s a ranking of the top options.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

Apologies in advance to anyone rooting for the Cleveland Cavaliers or Detroit Pistons. Both teams received consideration for one of the top-three slots and missed out.

To their credit, the Pistons’ defense can absolutely gum up the Thunder’s offense. But Detroit has no hope of scoring enough at the other end itself against Oklahoma City’s defense. The Cavs, meanwhile, simply aren’t physical enough to handle how the Thunder play for a full 48 minutes.

The Minnesota Timberwolves might be. This is all predicated on superstar Anthony Edwards’ hyper-extended knee holding up, but he’s playing well on it so far. Minnesota’s defense has also shown it can be highly disruptive, thanks to Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels, as well as newcomer Ayo Dosunmu.

Concern lies on the offensive end. Not only is Edwards playing on a compromised knee, but the Timberwolves lack competent secondary ball-handlers. Julius Randle has been up-and-down. Mike Conley is too old. Bones Hyland is having a brutal playoffs. Naz Reid’s handle is good for a big, but not someone attacking pressure.

Dosunmu or McDaniels is probably the Timberwolves’ second-best on-ball guy at this point. Both have come a long way. Neither is ideal. Still, the combination of the Timberwolves’ size, defense, and when they’re on, the ability to get out in transition has us putting them in the No. 3 slot.

2. New York Knicks

Don’t look now, but the New York Knicks are playing juggernaut basketball.

Through the first two rounds of the playoffs, the Big Apple’s finest joined Oklahoma City as the only two teams who rank in the top five of both offensive and defensive efficiency. Even if you believe they are playing above their head, you can only write off so many developments as streaky.

Jalen Brunson has always been an A-plus scorer. That he’s also getting more reps off the ball now only makes him more sustainably dangerous. Karl-Anthony Towns is having one of the best passing seasons for a big man in NBA playoff history. That feels fluky on the surface. Yet, he’s always been a talented playmaker. The Knicks are merely the first squad to use him as a hub at the top of the key on a consistent basis, and it took until the postseason, basically, for them to do it.

New York’s breadth of perimeter defenders has always been above-average, too. Mikal Brides and Josh Hart are both versatile and good. OG Anunoby may have been one of the 10 best defensive players in basketball this season. Landry Shamet and Deuce McBride are smaller, but they fight like heck over screens.

If you are looking for concerns, you should spotlight the defensive rises of both Towns and Jordan Clarkson. Neither is known for regular stopping power or effort on that end. They have each brought the heat all postseason.

The real concern for New York against OKC is its lack of tertiary ball-handlers. It is wildly thin after Brunson. Anunoby (who’s dealing with a hamstring strain by the way) and Bridges aren’t high-volume on-ball creators. Towns’ handle is too loose when he’s going downhill. He stands to get eaten alive by the Thunder. The Knicks do not have a true backup point guard-type, either.

Even with all this in mind, New York has shown it is deep and versatile. If you could guarantee the Knicks would have a consistent second option on offense, they’d have a case for the top spot.

1. San Antonio Spurs

Most would be hesitant to list the San Antonio Spurs in the top spot. Indeed, they won the regular-season series against the Thunder. But if we have learned anything over the past few years, it’s that regular-season results in specific matchups aren’t necessarily telltale of much.

Everyone, specifically, clings to San Antonio’s lack of playoff experience. Victor Wembanyama has played in plenty of big games, just not in the NBA. De’Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet are the only players on the roster with extensive postseason reps.

Forgive us for not caring. The Spurs are almost perfectly built to be Oklahoma City’s foil.

Wemby is a defensive system unto himself. The Thunder will barely ever reach the rim, in the half-court or transition, when he’s on the court. Then, on offense, the Spurs have multiple players who are comfortable driving the ball under pressure in Fox, Dylan Harper and Stephon Castle.

The primary issue, aside from experience, is probably shooting. Turnovers could be a dilemma as well, though the Spurs generally take care of the ball. Outside shot-making is more touch-and-go. Castle and Fox aren’t the strongest shooters, and the former doesn’t have a reliable mid-range game. A lot of pressure will be on Harper, a rookie, who is already the team’s best off-the-dribble shooter from beyond the arc and mid-range.

In the end, the on-ball optionality is the biggest difference. No other team has three guys—let alone four, when you also count San Antonio’s Devin Vassell—capable of standing up to the Thunder’s defensive pressure. The Spurs do. If the NBA has a foil for this year’s Oklahoma City squad, it’s almost assuredly San Antonio.