Is Paul Skenes the New Steve Blass?

Back in the early 1970s the Pittsburgh Pirates had an ace on their pitching staff named Steve Blass. Blass began his career in 1964 as a rookie then returned to the Pirates in 1966 as a full-time starter and would lead the Pirates to a world championship in 1971 with a seven-game victory over the Baltimore Orioles where Blass was the winning pitcher in the final game of that series. In 1972 Blass followed up that championship season by winning 19 games and losing only eight.

The next season after his magnificent campaign in 1972 that season saw the bottom falling out on Blass’s pitching abilities. In a very unexplainable way Steve Blass seemingly just forgot how to find the strike zone. From 19 victories the year before Blass was only able to earn three victories while losing nine. His ERA went from 2.49 in 1972 ballooning to 9.85 a season later. His failures became known as the “Steve Blass Mystery.”

In that 1973 season Blass only pitched in 88 2/3 innings as opposed to 249 2/3 the year before. In those nearly 89 innings pitched he incredibly surrendered 98 runs all but one was earned and walked 84 batters while striking out a meager 27. Another eye opener was that he hit 12 batters with pitches and tossed nine wild pitches. In his 19-win season of 1972 in 161 more innings than he pitched in 1973, Blass only gave up 80 runs and just 69 were earned. He also struck out 117 and walked only 84.

Blass’s 1972 season saw him finish second in the Cy Young Award voting for the National League. Blass was so confused by his immediate inabilities that he sought the help of a psychologist, a hypnotist even resorting to transcendental meditation. Nothing was working so his last-ditch effort was trying to pitch from his knees in practice in an effort to find a solution.

With the next season of 1974 underway the Pirates allowed Steve Blass to pitch in one game before having no choice but to send him down to the minors to see if he could recover his skills. In that one game he lasted just five games but surrendered eight runs five of which were earned and threw one wild pitch. Things did not get much better if at all for Blass down in the minors for the Triple-A Charleston Charlies of the International League.

Blass had a 2-9 won/loss record, and his ERA was as bad as it was in 1973 when his final number was a ghastly 9.74. Realizing he would never be able to pitch effectively again, Steve Blass retired in 1974. As unfortunate as it is for Steve Blass, his mystery is now often referred to as the “Steve Blass Disease.” An article was written by famous writer Roger Angell on Blass’s odyssey which was written in 1975 and can be read by following this link.

Looking back at when Steve Blass was dominant, he had posted records of 18-6 (1968), 16-10 (1969), 15-8 (1971), and that 19-win season in 1972. In three post-season appearances Blass won three of four games and they came in 1971 in the National League championship series then the World Series. The following season, Blass’s last solid season, he had another victory, but the Pirates were knocked off by the Cincinnati Reds failing to get the Fall Classic one more time. As indicated Blass was the winning pitcher in game seven of the 1971 World Series. In the games leading to that final one, Blass struck out 24 batters in 25 innings and walked just six. He was a model of consistency and control.

Steve Blass would retire and go into radio and television as the Pittsburgh Pirates color commentary for the next 34 years. His pitching inability and nightmare of 1973 does not put himself into a class of his own. Former players Rick Ankiel, Mark Wohlers, and Chuck Knoblauch suffered similar fates. That brings us to current day and a man who is supposed to be the Pirates’ ace, Paul Skenes.

Are we seeing another case of the Steve Blass disease in Skenes? Now in his third Major League Baseball season, Skenes, who was baseball’s first overall draft pick when he was selected, won the Rookie of the Year Award when he made his debut in 2024. He won 11 games and lost just three while posting an outstanding ERA of 1.96. He took the majors by storm. One year later he brought home the Cy Young Award for the National League. Despite just a 10-10 won/loss record, Skenes had a major league leading ERA of 1.97. He also finished sixth in the Most Valuable Player Award voting. In 187 2/3 innings he struck out 216 batters. This bettered his 170 mark from his rookie season. In both of those seasons he gave up 10 home runs and then 11 last year. This season he has already surrendered 11 and we are not even at the halfway point. That brings us to the 2026 season.

The Pittsburgh Pirates were expected to be a competitive team in 2026 with a handful of new veteran players and Paul Skenes leading the way as the pitching staff ace. In the season opener Skenes was on the mound and his outing was a disaster. Playing the New York Mets, Skenes lasted just 2/3 of an inning giving up four hits and five earned runs. Perhaps that was an omen for things to come. He also walked two batters and struck out just one hitter. It was the shortest outing for Skenes in his first three seasons.

In his next start, Skenes and the Pirates defeated the Cincinnati Reds and Skenes was much better, allowing just one earned run and striking out five. It seemed he had found his rhythm once again because he would win his next three decisions bringing his ERA down from that atrocious opening season start where he exited the first inning with a 67.5 ERA to 2.48 after defeating the Milwaukee Brewers and having a new ERA of 2.48.

Paul Skenes would win two of the next three and with a 6-2 record, he seemed to have righted his ship. Not so fast. Since that victory over the Colorado Rockies on May 12th, Skenes has not won again. In his last nine starts he has lost six games, in between those five losses came four non decisions. Still, we are approaching two months since his last victory and now his ERA is at 3.62. His record now is 6-8 hardly performances from the defending Cy Young Award winner. His last outing on July 1 facing the Philadelphia Phillies, manager John Kelly for one reason another left Skenes in the game while he saw his star pitcher getting rocked.

In just four innings, Skenes gave up six hits, eight runs (seven earned), two home runs, two walks, but still struck out five. The Pirates keep hovering around .500 ball, but it was supposed to be better than this. It’s disheartening for a Pirates diehard fan to see what is happening to Skenes and also leads us to scratching our heads asking what happened to Paul Skenes? Has other teams figured him out? One question that has been asked repeatedly is whether or not his participation in the World Baseball Classic does something to his pitching ability?

I also hear noise about the velocity of his pitches and how it’s decreased as clocking his pitches is showing a decline in speed. OR is this a case of the “Steve Blass disease?” Only time will tell but if Skenes continues on a downward spiral, can we truly believe the Pirates will send him down to the minors like the Buccos did to Steve Blass 52 years ago? That would be hard to wrap your head around but it’s obvious something is up with Paul Skenes.

I believe without an effective Paul Skenes on the pitching staff there is no way for the Pirates to win the division let alone earn a wild card spot. There are some other decent starting pitchers on the staff and in his first two seasons Skenes was a victim of the Pirates offensive lineup not producing enough runs or getting him an early lead. This season it’s a completely different story. Skenes is falling behind on the pitch count often and allowing himself to give opposing teams the lead early, sometimes a big lead.

Pirates fans can only hope Skenes figures this all out and returns to the form that won him Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young Award in 2025. If he can’t start winning games and continues to allow his ERA to climb, not only is he in danger of being moved from the starting staff, but he just might also find himself going back to the minors to find an answer. That spells trouble for him and the Pittsburgh Pirates.