Pittsburgh Steelers Week 15 Preview: Four to Decide

The 2025 NFL season is down to the final four weeks and for the Pittsburgh Steelers, they finish the season with those four games with a current record of 7-6. With four games to go there are four factors to determine.

1. Can the Steelers hang on and win enough games to take the AFC North division crown?
2. Will the Steelers make the playoffs and if they do, can they win that elusive first game?
3. Do the final four games determine the future of Mike Tomlin as Pittsburgh’s head coach?
4. What becomes of the Steelers’ quarterback position regarding who starts in 2026?

For the last two months there has been a consistent buzz about the future of Mike Tomlin and as I said in my last post game wrap-up Tomlin and the Steelers need to get to the playoffs and win at least the first game to save Tomlin’s job. We all know Art Rooney II won’t fire Tomlin based on the reputation that the Steelers have with coaches so a mutual decision will have to be made if Tomlin is to leave.

Standing in the way of Pittsburgh winning out are the Miami Dolphins first this coming Monday on Monday Night Football with the remaining games in Detroit, home for the Cleveland Browns, and a rematch with the Ravens at Acrisure Stadium. If they play as they did against the Ravens last weekend, I can see Pittsburgh winning three of these last four which would have them finishing 10-7. This would also give Mike Tomlin a record setting 19 consecutive winning seasons.

With a division title in hand obviously the Steelers make the playoffs. That and they would have a first round home game. Can they finally win one? I believe with Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback given his postseason experience that is an advantage. How far they can get with a win remains to be seen if that happens.

As questioned above, these final four games could easily influence the thinking of team President Art Rooney II. If Tomlin loses a three of the four, he finishes out of the playoff picture and with his first ever losing record. That I believe will force Rooney to convince Tomlin its time for a change. But say Tomlin and the Steelers win several more and win the AFC North. A first round playoff loss might have the same impact as not making it.

BUT…win the division and win a playoff game and Tomlin would most likely be safe. Go all the way and bring the Lombardi back to Pittsburgh? Tomlin would win back the Steelers Nation fan base. First things first. The fish from Miami are in town.

When the Dolphins have the ball

Miami is riding a four-game winning streak, but they are entering cold territory of winter in Pittsburgh. Tua Tagovailoa has been injury free for a bit now and he comes to the Steelers with a season quarterback rating of just 86.4. He’s been sacked 26 times and thrown 14 interceptions. He should expect lots of pressure on Monday night.

De’Von Achane has rushed for over 1,000 yards thus far in 2025 and is Miami’s primary runner. He has an incredible per rush average of 5.8 so the Pittsburgh defense has its work cut out for them to slow him down. After Acahen Ollie Gordon has the most rushing yards and it is a total of only 191. In the air Pittsburgh’s defense will have to put a blanket on Jaylen Waddle who has 812 yards receiving. Tyreek Hill is always a threat but after Waddle the Dolphins prefer instead to run with Achane.

T.J. Watt had surgery last Thursday for a collapsed lung that gave way in practice a day before, so it appears he mostly likely won’t play. While announcers on ESPN are saying this is a big blow to the Steelers’ chances on Monday night I highly disagree. Sure, his absence will have an impact but there is plenty of talent to go around on defense and Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig will be up to the task as they will be helped by Payton Wilson and rookie Jack Sawyer. A plus is the return of rookie Derrick Harmon.

Looking at the history of both teams playing each other, there have been just 29 games since 1971 when the first meeting took place in Miami and on November 11, 1971, the Dolphins won 24-21. Pittsburgh lost the first three meetings between the two clubs. The Steelers, however, would win the next three.

The second meeting was in the playoffs in 1972 one game after the infamous “Immaculate Reception” and Pittsburgh was unable to hand Miami their first loss of the season as they headed to the one and only undefeated season in NFL history with a team that also won the NFL championship. There was another playoff game in 1979 that the Steelers won 34-14 on their way to their second consecutive Super Bowl title and fourth in six years.

One more playoff meeting came in 1985 when the Dolphins clubbed the Steelers 45-28. The Steelers have gone over 40 points in a single game just one in 1988 when they won at home 40-24. Pittsburgh lost five straight to Miami from 1981 through the 1987 season. But the Steelers had their version of five in a row from 2004 through the 2010 season.

In the last five games the Steelers have won two and Miami three. The last meeting took place in 2022 that saw Pittsburgh lose 16-10 in Miami. The Dolphins shut out the Steelers just once in 1998 when they won 21-0. Pittsburgh also has just one goose egg and that was in 2007 winning in the much-remembered bad weather game where the Steelers had the only points on a Jeff Reed field goal with the final score of 3-0. I was supposed to be at that game and even had a ticket but had to return home because of threats of a hurricane.

When the Steelers have the ball

Aaron Rodgers had his best game all season last week in Baltimore and that was without a strong running game. Miami’s passing defense is solid allowing only 202.6 yards on an average per game. Their rush defense is not as good surrendering 131.9 yards per outing. Overall Miami gives up about 23 points per game and Pittsburgh scored just under 24.

The Steelers are averaging 195.2 yards in passing per game and just 89.2 on the ground. However, in Baltimore the offense showed some signs of life, and I believe the numbers can be tossed aside.

Intangibles

Monday Night typically belongs to the Steelers when they play this nationally televised game. Under Mike Tomlin the Steelers have a record of 20-3 on this night. 10 out of 10 games played at home have all been won by Pittsburgh. Tomlin’s overall record on Monday Night Football is 21-3. The Steelers as a team have won the last 22 Monday Night Football games played in Pittsburgh. On Monday, the warm weather liking Dolphins will be taking the field in 23-degree temperatures which could drop to 17 before the game is over. Advantage Steelers.

Prediction