Is There a New GOAT in the NFL?

With the 2024 NFL season nearly over, there has been much conversation about whether Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes is now the greatest quarterback ever. The label of Greatest of All Time (GOAT) has mostly been thrust upon Tom Brady but with Mahomes reaching yet another Super Bowl, many have replaced Brady with Mahomes.

Mostly because of his seven Super Bowl rings, Tom Brady is called the GOAT. However, given Mahomes getting to his fifth Super Bowl in six years, the conversation has changed dramatically. Since the Lombardi Trophies are a big part of the discussion, that and statistics might be an effective way to determine who in fact is the best quarterback of all time.

Patrick Mahomes is completing just his eighth season in the league and he and the Chiefs have been to the playoffs in each of those eight seasons. In the last six years, Kansas City, while led by Mahomes on offense, has been to five Super Bowls including this season’s. They have won three of the last four that they played in and have a chance to win a fifth when they face the Philadelphia Eagles. A victory there would place them just one win away from the most Super Bowl triumphs ever, a record six shared by New England and Pittsburgh.

In looking at the best quarterbacks in history, I took into consideration these five: Brady, Peyton Manning, John Elway, Dan Marino, and Joe Montana. Before Mahomes came along, my #1 was Manning. I just think he is more of a technician and smarter than Brady was, and I lend Tom Brady’s success mostly on the team and talent he had to work with. Considering just raw talent, I believe the others list above are all more physically and athletically talented than was Brady.

To make these comparisons, I’m only taking into consideration the first eight years of each player’s career since Patrick Mahomes has only been in the NFL for eight years. One of the most looked at stats in a quarterback’s record is his win/loss record. I don’t like to put too much weight into how many games a quarterback won or lost because in most cases, the quarterback alone is not responsible for victories. It’s a team game with team effort so credit should go out to the other 21 starters on offense and defense.

Still, through his first eight NFL campaigns Patrick Mahomes when behind center has won 89 games and been on the losing end of 29. That’s an amazing 70% winning percentage. Better than that though is he has already won three Super Bowl rings and with a win over Philadelphia that will be number four placing him just three behind Brady. Keep in mind that Mahomes has quarterbacked in another Super Bowl where the Chiefs lost and there are two conference championship losses on his record. Mahomes has been to the AFC championship game seven times in eight seasons. That’s simply unheard of.

Let’s put Mahomes up against the current GOAT. Tom Brady. In his first eight seasons, his win/loss percentage was a bit higher than Mahomes (74%) with 76 victories under his belt. The Kansas City QB won more games but lost five more than did Brady. As for other stats, thus far Patrick Mahomes has passed for 32,352 yards in his first eight seasons. Brady had 26,370. With 197 touchdowns, the former Patriots and Buccaneers signal caller did not toss as many as Mahomes has (245).

Brady was sacked 203 times in his first 112 games (a starter in 110) where Mahomes has also started in 112 but his sack total is 184. 74 times opponents have picked off a Patrick Mahomes pass while New England foes intercepted 86 Brady passes. Mahomes has engineered 19 fourth quarter comebacks and 23 game winning drives. Brady? 17 and 22 on those same stats.

In his first eight seasons, Tom Brady’s quarterback rating topped 100 just once for the 16 games (117.2), but Patrick Mahomes has seen his number go over the century mark four times. Finally, there is the completion percentage which reflects on accuracy. Brady sent over 65% just once in the first eight seasons, Mahomes six of the eight campaigns.

Disregarding the remainder of Tom Brady’s extensive career, given the fact that we have no idea how long Mahomes will play in the NFL, based on the previous statistics and information provided, I ask you, who is the GOAT? The numbers favor Mahomes and who are we to say he doesn’t surpass Brady’s seven Super Bowl championships and continues to pad his numbers?

When it comes to the other great quarterbacks mentioned previously, the win/loss percentages for their first eight seasons look like this:

• Peyton Manning: 62% (80-48)
• Dan Marino: 61% (82-51)
• Joe Montana-65% (57-30)
• John Elway: 61% (69-44)

Passing yards?

• Manning: 33,189
• Marino: 31,416
• Montana: 21,498
• Elway: 24,721

Then the remaining stats mentioned with Brady vs. Mahomes against the other four quarterbacks in this discussion:

Peyton Manning

• 244 touchdowns
• 30 interceptions
• 56 sacks
• 9 fourth quarter comebacks
• 25 game winning drives

Dan Marino

• 241 touchdowns
• 136 interceptions
• 98 sacks
• 13 fourth quarter comebacks
• 23 game winning drives

Joe Montana

• 141 touchdowns
• 76 interceptions
• 163 sacks
• 11 fourth quarter comebacks
• 10 game winning drives

John Elway

• 135 touchdowns
• 128 interceptions
• 250 sacks
• 17 fourth quarter comebacks
• 18 game winning drives

Just to review Patrick Mahomes’ numbers versus the above:

• 245 touchdowns
• 74 interceptions
• 184 sacks
• 19 fourth quarter comebacks
• 23 game winning drives

Based on the first eight seasons of these men’s careers, Mahomes has thrown more touchdowns than any of them, he has the fewest interceptions, only Marino was sacked less, Mahomes has the most fourth quarter comebacks, and is two behind Peyton Manning in game winning drives for the first eight seasons tied with Dan Marino at 23.

What does all this mean? We know all these great quarterbacks had long careers. If Mahomes decides to stick around for a while, he could finish his career with the best numbers in history. When you look at the big picture, Peyton Manning over 17 years averaged 4,231 yards per season. He also threw on average nearly 18 touchdowns each year. Tom Brady’s 23-year average on passing yards was 3,879. His touchdown average was 28.

Let’s move on to John Elway. 16 years the former Broncos quarterback played and for each of those 17 years, his total passing yardage stands at an average of 2,969 with almost 18 touchdowns per season. Keep in mind, Elway was more of a running quarterback and not a pocket passer-like Manning. Dan Marino also played 17 seasons. His numbers? 3,609 yards and almost 25 touchdowns.

Finally, Joe Montana. “Joe Cool” averaged 2,703 yards passing while throwing for an average on touchdowns only 18. That brings us back to Patrick Mahomes. He is averaging 4,044 yards passing over his first eight seasons. That’s remarkably close to Peyton Manning’s number and surpasses that of Tom Brady. With nearly a 31-touchdown passing percentage over his career thus far, his number there is better than the rest.

Final conclusion? If Patrick Mahomes decides to play another seven years let’s say just to match that of Joe Montana’s stay in the NFL, he could very easily hold all the passing records by the time he retires but more importantly, if he wins this next Super Bowl that gives him four and then he would be just three short of Brady’s record. If he plays longer than seven more seasons and let’s say 10 more, he might win 3-4 more NFL titles.